Country Market Electrical Demand

Ecuador has moved from occasional power exporter to structural deficit. Electricity demand has been growing at roughly 7 percent per year, with system demand projected around 40,000 GWh by 2025. Yet very little firm capacity has been added since 2016, leaving an estimated 19,000 GWh gap and a need for about 2,100–2,200 MW of new generation just to get back on track.

This under-investment translated into a full-blown crisis in 2023–2024. Severe drought at major hydro plants and neglected thermal assets meant that out of roughly 2 GW of installed fossil capacity, only about 880 MW was truly operational. Rolling blackouts started at up to 8 hours per day and by late 2024 reached 12–14 hours in many cities, with cumulative economic losses estimated between US$2 and US$7.5 billion and some analyses pointing to roughly US$12 million of GDP lost for every hour without power.

To keep the lights on, the government has had to rent fuel-oil generators at roughly US$0.22–0.24 per kWh and pay up to US$0.60 per kWh for emergency imports from Colombia, even as it works to stabilize the system. In October 2024, regulators introduced a dedicated tariff for new private renewable and biomass projects of about US$0.11864 per kWh, with rates grandfathered once permitting is submitted, creating a clear price signal for long-term private generation.

Against this backdrop, coastal and urban demand nodes on your map are not just colors – they are the front lines of the deficit. They are where outages have been most damaging for industry, agriculture, and services, and where new firm and complementary generation is most needed. RDT’s waste-to-energy, coastal wind–solar, water and storage pipelines are being designed and sized in direct response to this gap, turning a 19,000 GWh national shortfall and 6–14-hour blackouts into a defined opportunity set for long-term, contracted cash-flow assets.